October 12, 2003
Stupid Predictions Time: Dean v. Clark
Ok, here is the deal. I'm going to make some dumb predictions on the eventual Democratic nominee for president next year. If I some turn out to be right you give me lots of respect and props. If I turn out to be wrong, we just forget the whole thing. Sounds fair? Good, I love you all.
So baring any crazy twists and turns (note this is an escape hatch) I think its Clark vs. Dean for this presidential nomination. Which sort of makes it a traditional top down approach vs a new school bottom up emergent technique, although I'm sure Dean has plenty of top down in him. Doesn't matter Clark's top down is going to win it. He's got Gore's veteran team, without its two major flaws; Al Gore himself, and the need to distance
the campaign from Clinton. Good shit, note how quickly Clark was able to grab first tier status.
Now if this goes down the really interesting stuff comes if Dean rolls in second place with a healthy amount of delegates. And more importantly a very potent bottom up team. A team that isn't exactly going to be under control by Dean and his advisors. The Clark people might not want Dean involved in their campaign as VP or whatnot. But they will want his machine supporting Clark. Only problem is that Dean isn't building a political machine, he's growing a political organism. Its living and breathing on its own, and its big and dangerous. The Clark people will be scared shitless of it turning against them in the general election, and they don't exactly have any precedent to base their actions on. Its going to be interesting...
Dean is developing a whole new political model for the US. Should he win outright it will be the new way to wage a campaign, bottom up all the way. But somehow I doubt he's going to win it all, I just don't see his model scaling large enough. But if he does well enough to have major impact on the results, something he's pretty much done already, then a whole lot of interesting crossbreeding is about happen. I'm keeping my eyes open.
Its pretty damn hard for grassroots to grow up to the height of the trees, but it might just attract some animals that can significantly shift the ecosystem...
Posted by William Blaze at October 12, 2003 06:45 PM | TrackBackIt's true - many changes have already happened, no matter who wins.
Is scaling the only problem you see with Dean? I think they learn fast on his team, and it will be intriguing to watch the campaign approach the new hurdles. 'The Doctor' is the best show on the road right now.
Posted by: Gary Santoro on October 12, 2003 07:34 PMI see scaling as being Dean's main problem. Personally the problem I have with him is that he hasn't convinced me he can win a majority of the electorate. The angry bit is starting to wear thin on me too.
My gut has been telling Dean is not pacing himself properly either. Has been for a long time. He's sprinting early often and hard. Can he hold it up? Seems to have slowed down of late. If he can maintain that energy level of the early summer for another year then I think he's got a great shot. But if he and his supporters run out of steam he's going down big time...
Posted by: Abe on October 12, 2003 09:22 PMTo the Honorable W. Blaze:
I'm not sure if I buy into the idea that Dean will burn out. He's a key player because his message has gotten more attractive with time. As an aside, I believe he's mellowing his tone a little.
I like Wes Clark, but he wasn't around when I was looking for voices to stand up to Bush months ago. Now it's easy to criticize Bush, even fashionable!
Clark received lots of publicity from the major media for 2 weeks, but I'm not sure he's a power among Democratic primary voters. In addition, he's never been elected to a public office or balanced a state budget.
I honestly don't think Dean is the ideal candidate, but he knew the war was half-baked at the beginning and wasted no time in telling people.
51% is a realistic number for Dean next year. Iraq is now a 5+ year problem. The loss of life is an outrage. If Dean wins the nomination, he'll be running against an administration that has proven itself unfit to govern.
Posted by: Gary on October 13, 2003 04:11 AMI'm not saying he's going to burn out, just that its a threat. There is some stuff to like about Dean, but I'm not sold yet, its wait and see for me. Plus I'm an independent, can't even vote in primaries...
Posted by: Abe on October 13, 2003 04:22 PMI'm an Independent too. I'm thinking of changing to (D) for a short while so I can vote in the Primary here in Arizona. It's somewhat of a dilemma for me, because I don't like the two party system. I may just sit and watch until Nov. 2004.
You're right, it is early - have to wait and see how things go.
Posted by: Gary Santoro on October 13, 2003 05:45 PMI think Dean has a fair chance: He's this year's Clean Gene, with massive grassroots appeal. He's an unusually intelligent small-state governor (shades of Bill Clinton). He may just be able to pull it off.
Here's an alternative scenario that seems sort of plausible, though: With Bush floundering in the polls, Hillary enters late in the race. Dean is by then looking shaky in the "red states". Hillary's closing momentum makes him a spent force. Hillary is familiar, reassuring to traditional and boomer dems, gets a fair amouunt of mileage out of her association with Bill. And isn't it about time we elected a woman?
Meanwhile, Clark is still looking strong but not like a winner. He signs on as VP. A perfect balance for the ticket. The military hates the Clintons? They won't mind the general.
However, Bush cleans their clock in the general election. Especially if he dumps Cheney for Condi.
Posted by: opie on October 16, 2003 04:17 AMI think Dean has a fair chance: He's this year's Clean Gene, with massive grassroots appeal. He's an unusually intelligent small-state governor (shades of Bill Clinton). He may just be able to pull it off.
Here's an alternative scenario that seems sort of plausible, though: With Bush floundering in the polls, Hillary enters late in the race. Dean is by then looking shaky in the "red states". Hillary's closing momentum makes him a spent force. Hillary is familiar, reassuring to traditional and boomer dems, gets a fair amouunt of mileage out of her association with Bill. And isn't it about time we elected a woman?
Meanwhile, Clark is still looking strong but not like a winner. He signs on as VP. A perfect balance for the ticket. The military hates the Clintons? They won't mind the general.
However, Bush cleans their clock in the general election. Especially if he dumps Cheney for Condi.
Posted by: opie on October 16, 2003 04:18 AMTHINK OUTSIDE THE BOX!
Dean AND Clark
for 2004
The Dream Team
Posted by: CJ on January 9, 2004 05:00 PM
