January 06, 2004

Dumb Political Prediction

Clark has pulled up to Kerry in the New Hampshire polls. For those unfamiliar with US politics, New Hampshire is where the convoluted and archaic process of choosing the next US president starts getting turned into actual votes. There are about a million steps after that... But New Hampshire is the beginning of a major threasholding where the field narrows quickly.

Kerry was once the leader in this whole race, but his campaign has been going nowhere downhill since about day 2. New Hampshire was supposed to be his first trophy but now it looks like his grave. That's not the news though. Clark is the news. And if he wants to win he needs to keep making news.

Making predictions is generally a dumb move, so if I end up wrong expect me to ignore the fact... But I'm predicting Clark to get a sudden bump in his support. He's going to walk out of these contests with the surprisingly larger vote totals.

Why? He quite simply is far better at using mass media then any other candidate. Dean has the grassroots advantage and when it comes to backroom politics Dean and Clark seems pretty even. Clark has better cards with the tacit backing of former president Clinton and a lot of DC insiders, but Dean is playing his weaker hand way better, grabbing ex-VP Gore's support.

But both those games are pretty well developed, although certainly not over. The media game however is heating up like a Ford Pinto. And as a former TV commentator with team of Clinton/Gore vets, Clark seems to understand how to use the mass media far better then any other candidate. Whether that will be enough to win is another story...

update: on the other hand if enough people read this story Clark's campaign is going absolutely nowhere but to pieces.

Posted by Abe at January 6, 2004 04:43 PM