October 12, 2003
Stupid Predictions Time: Dean v. Clark
Ok, here is the deal. I'm going to make some dumb predictions on the eventual Democratic nominee for president next year. If I some turn out to be right you give me lots of respect and props. If I turn out to be wrong, we just forget the whole thing. Sounds fair? Good, I love you all.
So baring any crazy twists and turns (note this is an escape hatch) I think its Clark vs. Dean for this presidential nomination. Which sort of makes it a traditional top down approach vs a new school bottom up emergent technique, although I'm sure Dean has plenty of top down in him. Doesn't matter Clark's top down is going to win it. He's got Gore's veteran team, without its two major flaws; Al Gore himself, and the need to distance
the campaign from Clinton. Good shit, note how quickly Clark was able to grab first tier status.
Now if this goes down the really interesting stuff comes if Dean rolls in second place with a healthy amount of delegates. And more importantly a very potent bottom up team. A team that isn't exactly going to be under control by Dean and his advisors. The Clark people might not want Dean involved in their campaign as VP or whatnot. But they will want his machine supporting Clark. Only problem is that Dean isn't building a political machine, he's growing a political organism. Its living and breathing on its own, and its big and dangerous. The Clark people will be scared shitless of it turning against them in the general election, and they don't exactly have any precedent to base their actions on. Its going to be interesting...
Dean is developing a whole new political model for the US. Should he win outright it will be the new way to wage a campaign, bottom up all the way. But somehow I doubt he's going to win it all, I just don't see his model scaling large enough. But if he does well enough to have major impact on the results, something he's pretty much done already, then a whole lot of interesting crossbreeding is about happen. I'm keeping my eyes open.
Its pretty damn hard for grassroots to grow up to the height of the trees, but it might just attract some animals that can significantly shift the ecosystem...Posted by Abe at October 12, 2003 06:45 PM